It took me a few days to read this intricate analysis. How does the vote in Congress to end the War influence the relative resolves of A and B? And today are we sure who is A and who is B?
I may have not been as clear about the actor designations. Usually actor A tries to deter actor B. Actor B is weaker than actor A but in triangular coercion he finds an opportunity to threaten actor C, which is weaker than actor B, but is valuable to actor A. Now actor B has leverage over actor A. In the Iran-US case the US is actor A, Iran is B and Gulf states are actor C. B=Iran has no power over the US, but gains coercive leverage over the US by being able to threaten Gulf states=C, which are valuable to the US.
The Congressional act actually further weakens the US=A and increases the leverage of Iran=B.
In the triangular relationship in Lebanon now Iran threatens to walk out of the negotiations which coerces the US to coerce Israel. So while Iran has no direct leverage over Israel it gains leverage by being able to coerce the US and then Israel. Iran--->US---->Israel, but not Iran---->Israel.
The question I raise about triangular coercion is that it is tactical in nature and within a broader deterrence/compellence game if actor A is resilient (which the US is not) the influence of the coercive leverage actor B (Iran) gains over C (Gulf states) is temporary.
The question is how long is temporary and what does Israel do if the US recedes further and further? I know, I might not want to hear the answer. Another layer in this game is what a new Israeli government, should we be lucky enough to get one, to use positive moves towards the Palestinians to strengthen and expand the Abraham Accords, enabling the US to put more pressure on Iran regarding Lebanon and the nuclear negotiations.
I agree with you. It seems to me that a move on the Palestinian issue would really realign the region. Instead we get Saudi Arabia with Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan...My fear now is that Iran would race to get the bomb. This war will be studied for a long time for how decisions should not be made....
It took me a few days to read this intricate analysis. How does the vote in Congress to end the War influence the relative resolves of A and B? And today are we sure who is A and who is B?
I may have not been as clear about the actor designations. Usually actor A tries to deter actor B. Actor B is weaker than actor A but in triangular coercion he finds an opportunity to threaten actor C, which is weaker than actor B, but is valuable to actor A. Now actor B has leverage over actor A. In the Iran-US case the US is actor A, Iran is B and Gulf states are actor C. B=Iran has no power over the US, but gains coercive leverage over the US by being able to threaten Gulf states=C, which are valuable to the US.
The Congressional act actually further weakens the US=A and increases the leverage of Iran=B.
In the triangular relationship in Lebanon now Iran threatens to walk out of the negotiations which coerces the US to coerce Israel. So while Iran has no direct leverage over Israel it gains leverage by being able to coerce the US and then Israel. Iran--->US---->Israel, but not Iran---->Israel.
The question I raise about triangular coercion is that it is tactical in nature and within a broader deterrence/compellence game if actor A is resilient (which the US is not) the influence of the coercive leverage actor B (Iran) gains over C (Gulf states) is temporary.
The question is how long is temporary and what does Israel do if the US recedes further and further? I know, I might not want to hear the answer. Another layer in this game is what a new Israeli government, should we be lucky enough to get one, to use positive moves towards the Palestinians to strengthen and expand the Abraham Accords, enabling the US to put more pressure on Iran regarding Lebanon and the nuclear negotiations.
I must read your books
I agree with you. It seems to me that a move on the Palestinian issue would really realign the region. Instead we get Saudi Arabia with Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan...My fear now is that Iran would race to get the bomb. This war will be studied for a long time for how decisions should not be made....